U.S. online holiday spending is expected to reach $275 billion in 2026. New data from Adobe Analytics and the Federal Reserve highlights key product categories, consumer spending habits, and financing trends worth watching.
U.S. retailers have been preparing for it for months. The 2026 holiday shopping season is expected to set another record for U.S. e-commerce. According to Adobe Analytics’ latest forecast, Americans are projected to spend $275.1 billion online between November 1 and December 31, up 6.7% from 2025.
It’s a big number as usual. In the same report, Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) is expected to account for $21.3 billion, representing approximately 7.7% of projected online holiday spending and growing 6.6% year over year.
$21.3 billion BNPL in 2 months time
Representing nearly 7.7% of projected U.S. online holiday spending, these figures point to another substantial season for installment payments.
For retailers, the real question is where consumers are spending, what they’re financing, and how payment flexibility influences their decisions. BNPL adoption, however, varies considerably across retail categories.
Holiday Spending: The Categories to Watch
Adobe’s forecast identifies electronics, apparel, and furniture among the largest contributors to online holiday sales. Meanwhile, other categories, including groceries, toys, and cosmetics, are also expected to grow at faster rates.
| Product category | Forecast sales | YoY growth |
| Electronics | $63.3B | +5.9% |
| Apparel | $51.3B | +4.7% |
| Furniture | $33.4B | +7.3% |
| Grocery | $26.1B | +10.3% |
| Toys | $9.6B | +9.6% |
| Cosmetics | $9.2B | +9.5% |
Source: Adobe Analytics, 2026 U.S. Holiday Shopping Forecast. November–December projections.
Among these categories, apparel, electronics, and furniture are also likely to remain important markets for BNPL during the upcoming holiday season. Transaction value also plays an important role in the success of consumer financing. A discounted gaming computer or furniture set presents a different purchasing decision from a smaller holiday gift.
High Ticket Purchases and Promotions: a Winning Combo.
In 2025, promotional activity encouraged shoppers to trade up to higher-priced appliances.
This year, with electronics once again among the key holiday shopping categories, Adobe expects computer discounts to reach approximately 23%, while furniture and home appliance discounts could reach 18% during major promotional periods.
For higher-ticket purchases, discounts and financing can serve complementary purposes. A promotion reduces the purchase price, while installment financing allows customers to distribute payments over time, subject to applicable terms and approval.
RETAILER TIP
Make financing part of your holiday promotions, not just a payment option at checkout.
What Are Consumers Buying with BNPL?
Holiday sales projections do not tell us how frequently shoppers use BNPL within individual product categories.
However, a Federal Reserve report published in August 2026, based on 2025 consumer survey data, offers a closer look at actual purchases. Here’s what BNPL users bought:
| Product category | BNPL users purchasing in category |
|---|---|
| Clothing & accessories | 49% |
| Electronics | 32% |
| Furniture & appliances | 26% |
| Groceries & food delivery | 20% |
| Travel expenses | 19% |
The results confirm that BNPL is used across a wide range of purchases, including categories particularly relevant to higher-value retail transactions. Electronics and furniture are notable examples. Both represent substantial projected holiday sales volumes, and both appear among the established purchase categories for BNPL users.
Merchants looking to improve financing performance and conversion rates should recognize that customers have different financing needs. Some may prefer pay-in-four options, while others may look for longer-term installment loans.
A well-designed multi-lender strategy can help merchants accommodate this diversity through a broader range of financing options. It’s also an effective way to increase approval rates and improve sales conversions.
Strong Sales, Cautious Shoppers
Despite the familiar Black Friday footage of frenzied shoppers storming stores, strong holiday spending forecasts coexist with signs of consumer caution. According to Morning Consult’s 2026 holiday research, 38% of U.S. adults expect to spend less this holiday season than last year, compared with 16% who expect to spend more.
Meanwhile, NerdWallet’s 2026 holiday spending survey found that Americans planning to purchase gifts expect to spend an average of $879, approximately 21% below the previous year’s planned budget.
With persistent cost-of-living pressures weighing on household budgets, shoppers seem to approach the holiday season more carefully.
BNPL: An Established Part of the Purchase Decision
Morning Consult also reports that 31% of U.S. adults plan to use BNPL for holiday gifts, including 46% of Gen Z and 43% of millennials.
BNPL has gradually established its place in the shopping landscape as a tool that can influence purchasing decisions. For some shoppers, installment payments offer convenience; for others, they help spread expenses across multiple pay periods.
Clear financing terms and repayment schedules remain essential for customers evaluating their options. For higher-value purchases, promoting financing earlier in the shopping journey can also help customers evaluate their options before checkout.
Mobile Shopping: A Priority for Holiday Financing
One of Adobe’s most striking projections concerns mobile commerce. Mobile devices are expected to generate 57.4% of total online holiday spending, but approximately 82% of BNPL spending.
That difference makes mobile financing experiences particularly relevant for retailers. Customers browsing on smartphones should be able to identify financing options and navigate the application process easily.
Beyond e-commerce, mobile financing is also gaining relevance in physical stores, where tap-to-pay and in-store BNPL solutions are creating new opportunities to offer financing directly at the point of sale.
Making the Most of Holiday Shopping 2026
With BNPL expected to account for more than $21 billion in online purchases, retailers have good reason to optimize financing throughout their sales funnel. This is particularly relevant for electronics, furniture, and home appliances, but also for categories such as jewelry, home improvement, and other higher-value purchases.
For retailers preparing for Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the remainder of the holiday season, three priorities stand out: appealing promotions, financing options with clear payment terms, and a seamless mobile experience.
Offering attractive financing options is only part of the equation, though. What happens once a shopper starts an application? That’s where lender routing matters. A single lender may not accommodate every customer’s credit profile, potentially leading to declined applications and lost sales opportunities.
WeGetFinancing‘s multi-lender platform helps merchants reach a broader range of customers through multiple financing options and a single application.
